# Australia

## The Value of Tactical Adaptation to El Niño–Southern Oscillation for East Australian Wheat

El Niño–Southern Oscillation strongly influences rainfall and temperature patterns in Eastern Australia, with major impacts on frost, heat, and drought stresses, and potential consequences for wheat production. Wheat phenology is a key factor to …

## Direct and Indirect Costs of Frost in the Australian Wheatbelt

Breeding for improved reproductive frost tolerance could allow greater yield and economic benefits to be achieved by (i) reducing direct frost damage and (ii) allowing earlier sowing to reduce risks of late-season drought and/or heat stresses. We …

## Assessment of canopy growth and development for three wheat cultivars under different water and nitrogen regimes

Traits related to water productivity in dryland cropping interact in multiple ways to influence final grain yield. Crop modelling can be a useful tool to address the challenge of determining how to best combine region-specific traits and develop …

## Improving the relationships used to define frost damage to wheat in crop models

In order to predict the consequences and value of frost adaptation through breeding and agronomy across Australia’s cropping region it is essential that a validated frost damage function is incorporated into our crop models. This paper reports on …

## Economic assessment of wheat breeding options for potential improved levels of post head-emergence frost tolerance

Frost, during reproductive developmental stages, especially post head emergence frost (PHEF), can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. Breeding for improved PHEF tolerance may allow greater yield to be achieved, by (i) reducing …

## Quantifying high temperature risks and their potential effects on sorghum production in Australia

High temperatures across the Australian sorghum belt can reduce sorghum yields, but genotypic differences in heat tolerance could mitigate these yield losses. The objectives of this study were to quantify occurrences of high temperatures around …

## Drought in wheat – Past and future trends

Understanding how climate is varying and is likely affecting crop productivity in the coming decades is essential for global food security. Climate change studies predict an increase in temperature and more rainfall variability in future decades, …

## Identification of Earliness Per Se Flowering Time Locus in Spring Wheat through a Genome-Wide Association Study

Identification of earliness per se (Eps) flowering time loci in spring wheat are troublesome due to confounding effects of vernalization and photoperiod responses. The Wheat Association Mapping Initiative panel of 287 elite lines was assessed to …

## Improvement of the model capacity and assessment traits related with water use efficiency for wheat in Australia

Traits related with water productivity in dryland cropping interact in multiple ways to influence final grain yield, with traits being of different value across environments. In recent years, crop models have been demonstrated as a useful tool to …

## Recent changes in southern Australian frost occurrence: implications for wheat production risk

Frost damage remains a major problem for broadacre cropping, viticulture, horticulture and other agricultural industries in Australia. Annual losses from frost events in Australian broadacre agriculture are estimated at between $120 million and$700 …

## Do wheat breeders have suitable genetic variation to overcome short coleoptiles and poor establishment in the warmer soils of future climates?

Increases in air and soil temperatures will impact cereal growth and reduce crop yields. Little is known about how increasing temperatures will impact seedling growth and crop establishment. Climate forecast models predict that by 2060, mean and …

## Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Wheat Plant Traits across Environments by Combining Crop Modeling and Global Sensitivity Analysis

A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major …

## Velocity of temperature and flowering time in wheat – assisting breeders to keep pace with climate change

By accelerating crop development, warming climates may result in mismatches between key sensitive growth stages and extreme climate events, with severe consequences for crop yield and food security. Using recent estimates of gene responses to …

## Breeding for the future: How to adapt to frost, drought and heat impacts in Australian wheat

While extreme climatic events (frost, heat and drought) can already severely limit wheat production, the expected future increase in extreme temperatures and rainfall variability will further challenge improvement in crop productivity. In addition, …

## Heat stress effects on grain sorghum productivity – biology and modelling

Heat stress shock has been known to cause sterility in sorghum and the anticipated increasing frequency of heat shock events with maximum temperature trends implies increasing risk. Here we summarise our research on specific varietal attributes …

## Projected impacts of climate change on drought stresses in Australian wheat

Wheat is one of the primary staple foods. Due to a rising population and improved living standards, demand for this crop continues to increase. Much of the wheat produced in Australia is grown in water-limited environments. Climate models project …

## Quantification of direct and indirect cost of frost for the Australian wheatbelt

A single post head-emergence frosts (PHEF) event has the potential to devastate individual wheat crops by damaging stems and killing whole heads. Wheat crops are most sensitive after head emergence and hence management of crop phenology to avoid PHEF …

## The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in Northeast Australia

Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here, we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in …

## Crop modelling to aid crop improvement

Substantial genotype x environment interactions impede breeding progress for yield. Identifying genetic controls associated with yield response is confounded by poor genetic correlations across testing environments. Part of this problem is related to …

## Gene-based prediction of heading time to target real-time and future climate adaptation in wheat

Spring wheat production systems in Australia require fine-tuning of heading time in order to maximise the efficient use of resources (radiation, water, fertiliser) across the season, while minimising the risk of crop failure due to frost, heat and …

## Predicting heading date and frost impact in wheat across Australia

Spring radiant frosts occurring when wheat is in reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield lost for producers. In wheat, heading time is the main determinant to minimize frost risks and to adapt new frost-tolerant cultivars …

## Climate change adaptation in Australian wheat farm systems upscaled from farm to national scale

Wheat is one of the main grains produced across the globe and wheat yields are highly sensitive to changes in climate. Australia is one of the main exporters of wheat, and variations in its national production can affect global markets. We evaluated …

## The value of adapting to climate change in Australian wheat farm systems: farm to cross-regional scale

Wheat is one of the main grains produced across the globe and wheat yields are sensitive to changes in climate. Australia is a major exporter of wheat, and variations in its national production influence trade supplies and global markets. We …

## Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt

Radiant spring frosts occurring during reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. To better understand the spatial and temporal variability of frost, the occurrence and impact of frost events on …

## National scale adaptation value in wheat farm systems by 2030, filling the yield gap or interactive benefits?

Abstract A large set of biophysical system-modelling simulations were undertaken for a set of 30 representative farm systems across the Australian wheat belt for a historical period (1980-2010) and projected climate to 2030 (AR4). Simulated yield and …

## Crop design for specific adaptation in variable dryland production environments

Climatic variability in dryland production environments (E) generates variable yield and crop production risks. Optimal combinations of genotype (G) and management (M) depend strongly on E and thus vary among sites and seasons. Traditional crop …

## Breeding for the future: How to adapt to potential impacts of future frost, drought and heat events on Australian wheat?

While extreme climatic events (frost, heat and drought) can already severely limit wheat production, the expected future increase in extreme temperatures and rainfall variability will further challenge improvement in crop productivity. In addition, …

## Crop design for specific adaptation in variable dryland production environment

Climatic variability in dryland production environments (E) generates crop production risks. Optimal combinations of genotype (G) and management (M) depend strongly on E and thus vary among sites and seasons. Traditional crop improvement approaches …

## Predicting heading time of Australian wheat using effects of VRN1 and Ppd-D1

Flowering time is a main determinant of wheat adaptation to diverse environments and is influenced by three groups of genes, earliness per se (EPS), VRN and PPD. The gene-based models, used known genes to predict wheat phenotype, would be robust for …

## Using gene-based information to adapt wheat flowering time to avoid heat, frost and drought stresses in current and future climates

Varying the timing of reproductive stages of growth relative to climatic stresses is a useful adaptation to maintain yields. In future climates, the expectation that heat, frost and drought stresses may change in their timing means requires that …

## Quantification of the effects of VRN1 and Ppd-D1 to predict spring wheat (Triticum aestivum) heading time across diverse environments

Heading time is a major determinant of the adaptation of wheat to different environments, and is critical in minimizing risks of frost, heat, and drought on reproductive development. Given that major developmental genes are known in wheat, a …

## Frost situation

Frost situation analysis in Australia

## Wheat response to drought and heat - Using crop modelling to prepare for the future

While extreme temperature and frequent drought severely affect wheat production, predictions of climate change forecast increased rainfall variability and increased occurrence of high temperature events. Here, we propose modelling tools to predict …

## Breeding for the future: what are the potential impacts of future frost and heat events on sowing and flowering time requirements for Australian bread wheat (Triticum aestivium) varieties?

Extreme climate, especially temperature, can severely reduce wheat yield. As global warming has already begun to increase mean temperature and the occurrence of extreme temperatures, it has become urgent to accelerate the 5–20 year process of …

## Crop improvement, ideotyping and modelling under climate change

The year 2050 is two to five full cycles of plant breeding from the present. Given that it takes 3 to 20 years to develop a new cultivar, this is not a substantial time period in which to develop improved adaptation. Averaged across many crops, …

## Frost and heat limits to the wheat flowering ‘window’ in present and future climates

To pollinate and set grain, Australian wheat needs to flower in spring in a ‘window’ when risks of frost or heat stress are low. Other stresses (e.g. early and late drought conditions) are also important in affecting the window, but here the focus is …